Early-est, tsunami early warning, and rapid magnitudes for large earthquakes

Anthony Lomax - ALomax Scientific, Mouans-Sartoux, France. www.alomax.net, anthony@alomax.net

Alberto Michelini - Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Roma, Italy

We have introduced new methods to determine rapidly on a regional to global scale the tsunami potential and magnitude of large earthquakes (e.g., Lomax and Michelini, 2009ab, 2011, 2012). To validate these methods we have tested them on 120 large earthquakes (6.4 ≤ Mw ≤ 9.1) and implemented them along with other new algorithms within the Early-est earthquake monitor at INGV-Rome. Early-est is a lightweight software package for real-time earthquake monitoring (including phase picking, phase association and event detection, location, magnitude determination, first-motion mechanism determination, ...), and for tsunami early warning based on the TdT0 and TdT50Ex discriminants for earthquake tsunami potential. In a simulation using archived broadband seismograms for the devastating M9, 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, Early-est determines: the epicenter within 3 min after the event origin time (OT), discriminants showing very high tsunami potential within 5-7 min, and magnitude Mwpd(RT) 9.0–9.2 and a correct shallow-thrusting mechanism within 8 min. Real-time monitoring with Early-est gives similar results for most large earthquakes using currently available, real-time seismogram data.

Early-est in realtime:

http://early-est.rm.ingv.it - Realtime Early-est running 24/7 at INGV

http://early-est.alomax.net - Realtime Early-est running intermittently at ALomax Scientific

Early-est off-line simulation:

25 October 2010, Mw7.8 Mentawai tsunami earthquake (view mpeg animation)


Lomax, A. , A. Michelini and S. Lorito(2013), Tsunami early warning in the Mediterranean: current and potential contributions of seismic information, EGU, April 2013, Vienna, Geophys. Res. Abs., 15, EGU2013-6902. (view Abstract, Poster)

Lomax, A. and A. Michelini (2012), Novel Algorithms Enabling Rapid, Real-Time Earthquake Monitoring and Tsunami Early Warning Worldwide, AGU, December 2012, San Francisco, Eos Trans. AGU, NN(NN), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract S53B-2495. (view Abstract, Poster)

Lomax, A. and A. Michelini (2012), Tsunami early warning within 5 minutes, EGU, April 2012, Vienna, Geophys. Res. Abs., 14, EGU2012-5411. (view Abstract, Presentation)

Lomax, A. and A. Michelini, Rapid determination of the magnitude and tsunami potential of large earthquakes, and implications for source physics, ESC, September 2010, Montpellier. (view Abstract, Presentation)

Video presentation (mostly in Italian): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StOjg8WyoU4&list=PL85287C0A1F6AD36C&index=4&feature=plpp_video

References and Further information:

Lomax, A. and A. Michelini (2012), Tsunami early warning within 5 minutes, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 169, nnn-nnn, doi: 10.1007/s00024-012-0512-6. (preprint PDF)

Lomax, A. and A. Michelini (2011), Tsunami early warning using earthquake rupture duration and P-wave dominant period: the importance of length and depth of faulting, Geophys. J. Int., 185, 283–291, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2010.04916.x. (further information, preprint PDF, Erratum PDF)

Lomax, A. and A. Michelini (2009), Tsunami early warning using earthquake rupture duration, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L09306, doi:10.1029/2009GL037223. (further information, article: http://www.agu.org/journals/gl/gl0909/2009GL037223 login & password: 50757847)

Lomax, A. and A. Michelini (2009), Mwpd: A Duration-Amplitude Procedure for Rapid Determination of Earthquake Magnitude and Tsunamigenic Potential from P Waveforms, Geophys. J. Int.,176, 200-214, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2008.03974.x (further information, preprint PDF)

More at: http://www.alomax.net/pub_list.html


Early-est at INGV is managed by Valentino Lauciani. This work is supported by INGV - Centro Nazionale Terremoti institutional funds and by the EC n.262330 NERA 2010-2014 project. INGV (ingv.it), IRIS DMC (www.iris.edu), GFZ Data Archive (geofon.gfz-potsdam.de) and GEOSCOPE (geoscope.ipgp.fr) provided access to waveforms used in this and cited studies.